Authors: Ueffing, P., Adhikari, S., K.C., S., Poznyak, O., Goujon, A. and Natale, F.

Summary: This report analyses the impact of the Russian invasion of 24 February 2022 on the longerterm future of Ukraine’s population size and structure. It focuses on the role of migration as a component of demographic change. Based on a review of past demographic trends and an assessment of the size and composition of the internationally displaced population from Ukraine, four qualitative migration scenarios are translated into population projections up to 2052. Under the most pessimistic Long War and Low Return scenario, the results show a decline of 31 % of the population. Even in an optimistic scenario of future migration trends where Ukraine recovers quickly and becomes a net receiving country of migrants in the longer term, the results suggest a population decline of 21 % by 2052. The difference in population decline across the four considered migration scenarios matches the uncertainty in the UN projections, suggesting that migration will be as important as fertility and mortality in driving population change in Ukraine following the war. The likely strong decrease in population comes with challenges of population ageing and a declining workforce that put stress on the economy and social support systems. The report contributes to forward-looking policymaking supporting the long-term economic and social recovery of Ukraine by anticipating possible consequences of migratory movements on longer-term population trends in Ukraine.

ISBN 978-92-68-00431-9 (online) , 978-92-68-00430-2 (print)

DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.2760/756870

Available at: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC132458

Responsible institutions: M.V. Ptukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the NAS of Ukraine et al.

Published: Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg

Size in pages: 39